A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
